Thursday, May 01, 2014

What Are The Odds

I've been reading a book as research for a wonderfully terrifying endeavor Jason and I are working on* and I came across a section that talks about the poor odds of a small business succeeding.
*More on this soon, I promise! There is lots of good stuff a-brewing.

I couldn't help but chuckle.

That's supposed to scare me? You wanna talk to me about long odds? So I did some digging. (Okay, googling.)

For every 10,000 kids in the US, 1 or 2 will be diagnosed with cancer each year.
That's a 0.01-0.02% chance.

Let's narrow it down to osteosarcoma, my childhood cancer. In the US, there are about 5.6 diagnoses per million people each year.
That's a 0.00056% chance.

About 2 out of 10,000 people will be diagnosed with lung cancer before the age of 40.
That's a 0.02% chance.

Now recall that I have a rare driving mutation, ROS1, that occurs in about 1-2% of non-small cell lung cancer.

Then there are the gulp-worthy stats about lung cancer survival times, and I have already (THANKFULLY, CONTINUING TO KNOCK ON WOOD) made it to the good side of the median.

For something more fun, let's consider the odds of having identical twins: 3 in 1,000, or about 0.3% chance.

The odds of all of these things happening to the same person?!?

All of this is to say that when I read that 80% of small businesses fail within a year, I see that 20% are still around a year later! Those are some of the best odds I've dealt with in a while.

I don't mean to be cocky, it's just that odds have continually proven to be meaningless to me. Also, tomorrow is my 3-month scan, so I think the nerves are making me punchy. Fingers crossed for good results on Tuesday! Let's keep beating the odds.


Anonymous said...

Odds mean nothing to those who beat them, right? Hoping for a good scan!

Unknown said...

You are a trooper! Someone has to be in the survival group...why not us? Best of luck with your business.
Praying for great scans!

Unknown said...

Good luck today with your scan! Hoping for good results!

Eva said...

Best wishes for Tuesday! We'll be thinking of you!